Playoff predictions

OK, let’s get right to it this week with my playoff predictions.
I’ll note I made these predictions on March 1 on the eve of the playoffs starting.
Sher-Wood Division
No. 4 Swan Valley vs. No. 1 Portage
The Terriers had made a living knocking the Swan Valley Stampeders out of the playoffs until last year, when the Stampeders “upset” the Terriers in five games. It was an upset in that Portage caught fire late in the season and edged past the slumping Stampeders to earn home-ice advantage, but the Stampeders were clearly older and built to make it through to the second round, which they did in five games. This year the Portage Terriers overcame a slow start and held off the Dauphin Kings to earn top spot in the division. They did it with one of the top netminders in the league in Jason Kasdorf. As a team, the Terriers tied the Blizzard for the fewest goals against. Portage also did it with youth, as their top scorers (Brent Wold, Brendan Harms), were also some of their youngest players.
Swan Valley, who flirted with first place until January, relied on strong defence, netminding, and timely scoring to lock down fourth place. Amazingly this team was 10 games above .500 while scoring less goals than they allowed. Shelby Gray and Ryan Marshall were their top two scorers, but the team also got a bunch of points from the blueline from guys like Clark Byczynski and Brent Wilson. Swan Valley also has their own youth movement – Landon Peel eats up a lot of minutes on the blueline, and call up Justin Valentino, who had three points in two games for the Stampeders this year, was the second-leading scorer in the Manitoba Midget AAA Hockey League this year. Could he be an X-factor in this series?
Both teams won four of eight starts this year, btw.
Prediction: Stampeders in seven.
No. 3 OCN Blizzard vs. No. 2 Dauphin Kings
Dauphin isn’t the powerhouse they were last year, and they’ll have a much tougher road to travel to repeat as league champions.
This series really is strength vs. strength – Dauphin sports the top point man and league MVP in Shane Luke, while OCN counters with the best goaltender in the league in Matt Krahn.
On special teams, Dauphin’s power-play efficiency of 35.24 per cent (second in the league) was only a bit better than OCN’s 31.53 per cent (fourth in the league).
That leads to more strength vs. strength, as OCN sports the best penalty kill unit in the MJHL at 80.54 per cent, while Dauphin was second at 76.12 per cent.
This series has seven games written all over it, and it will ultimately come down to special teams. Which strength will win in the end? Well, they say defence wins championships...
Prediction: OCN in seven.
Addison Division
No. 4 Waywayseecappo Wolverines vs. No. 1 Winkler Flyers
The Winkler Flyers were scorching hot in the last two months of the season, going 17-3-3 (including 9-1-2 in February). Their reward is a longer road trip in the first round against a team which was almost as hot down the stretch. Waywayseecappo went 14-8-2 in the final two months of the season, including a sizzling 9-3-1 mark in January. They might be the best fifth-place team in the MJHL since Swan Valley missed the playoffs with a 30 win season during the Del Pedrick years.
Waywayseecappo’s a hard-working team (seriously, what other team do you see running stairs after games?), and now that they’ve got a netminder in Ryan Benitez (11-6 since joining the team), they believe they can beat anyone.
But will a crossover team finally beat Winkler, a team which has had its share of playoff struggles in recent years? In a word, no.
Prediction: Winkler in six.
No. 2 Selkirk Steelers vs. No. 3 Winnipeg Saints
Selkirk lost their grip on top spot in the Addison Division, but they get a great runner-up prize – less travel in the first round of the playoffs, and an opponent who went ice cold down the stretch.
The Winnipeg Saints were battling with the Flyers and Steelers for one of the top two spots in the division until January. That’s when they put together a 10-13-0 run in the final two months of the regular season, including a 3-9-0 record in January.
The Saints are also changing rinks for the post-season, playing out of the Winnipeg Blues’ home arena – the new MTS Iceplex in Headingly. So much for home-ice advantage.
Selkirk might have sputtered down the stretch, but they should have enough in the tank to dispose of the Saints – better offence, defence and power play (best in the league). The only area the Saints have a statistical edge in is the penalty kill – Selkirk was 10th this season with a 65.87 success rate. Not that the Saints have much to brag about – they were ninth with a 68.22 per cent rate.
Prediction: Steelers in five.
That’s how I see it. How does the Dauphin Herald’s Doug Zywina see it?
Kings in five, Terrierse in six, Flyers in five, and Steelers in six.